Executive takeaway
When a board asks 'are we on schedule', the honest answer has three parts: where we sit against the baseline, how the trend has moved over the last reporting period, and what the forecast says about the next milestone.
Programs that report only the first one are reporting yesterday's truth. Programs that report all three are reporting decision-grade information.
Why it matters operationally
A planner watching float erode 0.4 days per week on the outfitting path. A project manager re-sequencing tank entry around a class window. A yard director comparing two sister programs and noticing the second one is drifting faster despite a better baseline.
These are not reporting events — they are decisions in the making.
Example decision scenario
Show baseline variance, period-over-period drift, and forecast-to-milestone in the same view. Separate critical-path movement from non-critical noise.
Tie schedule impact to the underlying causes — hold points, scope changes, resource constraints — so the next conversation is about cause, not symptom.
Where to take it next
Review schedule, drift and forecast in one operational picture — with critical-path causes attached.
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